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RFTCC-Wingbiter Friday 8/18-->Canceled
I won't be there to lead Friday. But I did plan a route for you to consider.
maybe something like this route. We will have to watch the weather as it looks like rain at the moment.
Looks like rain tonight,
> Looks like rain tonight,
Sure does. We will let Brett make the call, probably after consulting the Gerard Weather Service.
> > Looks like rain tonight, > > Sure does. We will let Brett make the call, probably after consulting the Gerard Weather Service. >
From the NWS: In terms of convective potential this afternoon and evening, boundary layer flow does turn to west southwest through the afternoon, suggesting some downslope and some cloud layers mixing out, increasing the chances for some breaks in the clouds in some areas. Since the primary cold front lags far to the west, a pre frontal trough and wind shift boundary will be the main focus for new and potentially strong afternoon convection.
With dew points forecasted to increase considerably in many areas through the day, even with limited sun and limited heating, the low level moisture will contribute to some instability, enough for some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. The low level and deep layer shear and midlevel lapse rates are not very impressive but again, surface based instability could be enough for isolated severe thunderstorms. There could be locally heavy rain with possible standing water on roadways in slower moving thunderstorms.
And from Weather Underground: Isolated thunderstorms this morning, then mostly cloudy during the afternoon with heavy thunderstorms becoming likely. A few storms may be severe. High 76F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Probability of rain >90% from 5PM until 7PM
My take? Cancel now. There's better weather in the days ahead.
> > > Looks like rain tonight, > > > > Sure does. We will let Brett make the call, probably after consulting the Gerard Weather Service. > > > > From the NWS: > In terms of convective potential this afternoon and evening, > boundary layer flow does turn to west southwest through the > afternoon, suggesting some downslope and some cloud layers > mixing out, increasing the chances for some breaks in the clouds > in some areas. Since the primary cold front lags far to the > west, a pre frontal trough and wind shift boundary will be the > main focus for new and potentially strong afternoon convection. > > With dew points forecasted to increase considerably in many > areas through the day, even with limited sun and limited > heating, the low level moisture will contribute to some > instability, enough for some potential for isolated severe > thunderstorms. The low level and deep layer shear and midlevel > lapse rates are not very impressive but again, surface based > instability could be enough for isolated severe thunderstorms. > There could be locally heavy rain with possible standing water > on roadways in slower moving thunderstorms. > > And from Weather Underground: > Isolated thunderstorms this morning, then mostly cloudy during the afternoon with heavy thunderstorms becoming likely. A few storms may be severe. High 76F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Probability of rain >90% from 5PM until 7PM > > My take? Cancel now. There's better weather in the days ahead.
You could have skipped all of this except the last sentence
Canceled bc of rain on the way.
Edited to reflect this. Have a nice evening.
Addendum @6:30pm Got this forecast perfect!